Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 4.724939 5.600806 6.571117 7.722579 9.048364 10.523542 12.285614
2025-05-11 3.341363 4.497269 5.921696 7.790896 10.162029 13.051026 16.816429
2025-05-18 2.381053 3.586153 5.215579 7.544623 10.746247 14.944816 20.809371
2025-05-25 1.724962 2.877511 4.570919 7.179776 11.022089 16.382714 24.312167
2025-06-01 1.342454 2.453890 4.211247 7.100278 11.612416 18.242522 28.525082
2025-06-08 1.064145 2.118679 3.902891 7.014098 12.134695 20.010329 32.738054
2025-06-15 0.930593 1.994701 3.902301 7.397742 13.406488 23.000645 39.032748
2025-06-22 0.776390 1.793153 3.724463 7.440867 14.106211 25.140107 44.176917
2025-06-29 0.648496 1.610661 3.542996 7.438430 14.708748 27.155051 49.270934
2025-07-06 0.542859 1.447726 3.365785 7.408405 15.243124 29.084296 54.361958
2025-07-13 0.513632 1.448756 3.516233 8.026052 17.021594 33.297160 63.640561
2025-07-20 0.458322 1.374163 3.493240 8.288553 18.150088 36.446103 71.301113
2025-07-27 0.411330 1.312037 3.493501 8.613570 19.464511 40.096643 80.236402
2025-08-03 0.349984 1.196025 3.350902 8.614025 20.136671 42.630695 87.383828
2025-08-10 0.283391 1.044991 3.094331 8.319348 20.162649 43.936849 92.365371
2025-08-17 0.224330 0.896284 2.810881 7.912933 19.893703 44.631332 96.228817
2025-08-24 0.188497 0.809231 2.669776 7.823296 20.301426 46.698019 102.880440
2025-08-31 0.158443 0.731070 2.535866 7.728363 20.681187 48.730915 109.602891
2025-09-07 0.148046 0.721215 2.596646 8.145745 22.293751 53.458563 122.050039
2025-09-14 0.128788 0.670173 2.523234 8.192552 23.025809 56.362907 130.957559
2025-09-21 0.111112 0.618626 2.436927 8.189851 23.634894 59.044517 139.578027
2025-09-28 0.095389 0.568927 2.345336 8.157149 24.163574 61.585864 148.066313
2025-10-05 0.094545 0.587554 2.488019 8.829233 26.555831 68.474119 166.244173